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Inhaltsbereich: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung

Forecasting regional labour markets in Germany

Abstract

"The aim of the present paper is to forecast regional employment developments in the 327 West-German districts. Using a Neural Networks (NNs) methodology we try to identify the existence of underlying structural relationships between the input variables - data on regional and sectoral employment and wages - and the future development of employment at a district level. In order to offer reliable forecasts for the years 2000 and 2001, a variety of NN models has been developed and compared. The emerging results confirm the ability of NNs in capturing the complex data structures - in the training and test phases - and hence in 'extrapolating' useful information in a multi-regional context. Concerning the forecasting phases, our analysis highlights the necessity of carrying out further research experiments - by introducing additional economic background variables - in order to get more insight into the mechanism and structure of spatio-temporal employment data." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Autorin / Autor

  • Longhi, Simonetta
  • Nijkamp, Peter
  • Reggiani, Aura
  • Blien, Uwe

Bibliografische Daten

Longhi, Simonetta; Nijkamp, Peter; Reggiani, Aura; Blien, Uwe (2002): Forecasting regional labour markets in Germany * an evaluation of the performance of neural network analysis. In: European Regional Science Association (Hrsg.), From industry to advanced services. Perspectives of European metropolitan regions, Dortmund, 35 S.
 

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