Commuting farther and earning more?
25 November 2015
Over the past several decades, most industrialized countries have experienced a rise in commuting distances, spurring scholarly interest in its determinants. The primary theoretical explanation for longer commuting distances is based on higher wages; however, empirical evidence is minimal.
IAB-Discussion Paper 33/2015
Long-term unemployment and labor force participation
19 November 2015
We sharpen tests for 'discouragement' and 'added worker' effects by splitting the explanatory variable - the unemployment rate - into a short-term and a long-term component. While short-term unemployment might not result in additional workers on a large scale, long-term unemployment reduces household income more, increasing the need for additional income. On the other hand, it may discourage older workers for psychological and sociological reasons. Applying our model to the German labor market, these hypotheses could be confirmed. Even for men, about whom only few empirical studies on this issue are available, distinguishing between short-term and long-term unemployment reveals discouragement effects."
IAB-Discussion Paper 32/2015
IAB offers internships for refugees
06 November 2015
For IAB, the integration of refugees into the labour market is not only a matter of research but also a question of practical commitment. This is the reason why in 2016 we are making a total of ten internships available to refugees. The offer is aimed at persons who have fled from their home countries. They should already have studied in their home country, ideally economic or social sciences. A good knowledge of English or German is a prerequisite.
You can find more information under Internship at IAB. Please address applications to: Bewerbungen@iab.de.
The impact of changing youth employment patterns on future wages
06 November 2015
This study examines employment patterns on the labor market for German apprenticeship graduates and returns to early-career employment stability over the past four decades. The data indicate the decreasing stability of youth employment since the late 1980s. Exploiting variation in the timing of macroeconomic shocks, I identify true state dependencies and find that stable employment early in professional life exhibits significant wage returns in future periods. These returns are particularly pronounced at the bottom of the wage distribution and have substantially increased during the 1990s. Accordingly, securing the training-to- work transitions would primarily be beneficial for the wage growth of workers with a generally low earning potential.
IAB-Discussion Paper 31/2015
Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful?
03 November 2015
In this paper the authors evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European states. She observe the best results for one quarter ahead predictions that are primarily the aim of the survey question. However, employment expectations also work well for longer forecast horizons in some countries.
IAB-Discussion Paper 30/2015
Misreporting to looping questions in surveys
30 October 2015
Looping questions are used to collect data about several similar events, such as employment spells, retirement accounts, or marriages. Looping questions can be asked in two formats, and which format a survey uses may affect the quality of the data collected. The authors develop theory-based hypotheses about the effects that the choice of format has on measurement error in looping questions and test the hypotheses using experimental data from a recent web survey with a link to administrative records.
IAB-Discussion Paper 29/2015
Detecting unemployment hysteresis
23 October 2015
We construct a new Markov-switching unobserved components framework for the analysis of hysteresis effects. Our model unifies the ingredients of trend-cycle decomposition, identification of spillovers between the components and asymmetry over the business cycle. Employing the model for Germany and the U.S. over 55 years, we find that the decades-long upward trend in German unemployment is fully explained by hysteresis. The Great Recession was well absorbed because both hysteresis effects and structural unemployment were substantially reduced after institutional reforms. In contrast, U.S. unemployment did not evolve according to hysteresis, not even during the Great Recession.
IAB-Discussion Paper 28/2015