The impact of low-skilled immigration on female labour supply
19 November 2013
This paper contributes to the literature on the impact of immigrants on native female labour supply. By segmenting the market by educational levels, the authors are able to investigate which nativeborn women are more affected by an increase of low-skilled immigrants working in the household service sector. They present a model of individual choice with home production, using an harmonized dataset (CNEF) and test its main predictions.
IAB-Discussion Paper 20/2013
Recruiting abroad: the role of foreign affinity and labour market scarcity
15 November 2013
The author study the recruiting behaviour of German establishments with regard to the use of foreign labour markets. The results indicate that shortages are functional and foster the use of foreign labour markets, but the large effect of foreign affinity also reveals that the potential of immigrant workers is used selectively.
IAB-Discussion Paper 19/2013
The cyclicality of worker flows: Evidence from Germany
05 November 2013
The development of unemployment and employment is strongly determined by labor market flows. This dissertation analyzes worker flows, i.e. job findings and separations, over the business cycle. The analysis uses process-generated micro data provided by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), which allow gaining comprehensive insights into labor market dynamics in Germany.
Journal for Labour Market Research 3/2013 ( Volume 46)
28 October 2013
Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies
28 October 2013
The paper investigates the predictive power of a new survey implemented by the Federal Employment Agency (FEA) for forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA's regional agencies are asked about their expectations of future labor market developments. We generate an aggregate unemployment leading indicator that exploits serial correlation in response behavior through identifying and adjusting temporarily unreliable predictions. We use out-of-sample tests suitable in nested model environments to compare forecasting performance of models including the new indicator to that of purely autoregressive benchmarks. For all investigated forecast horizons (1, 2, 3 and 6 months), test results show that models enhanced by the new leading indicator significantly outperform their benchmark counterparts. To compare our indicator to potential competitors we employ the model confidence set. Results reveal that models including the new indicator perform very well.
IAB-Discussion Paper 17/2013
The effectiveness of sequences of One-Euro-Jobs
10 October 2013
Many studies have analysed the effectiveness of single active labour market programmes (ALMPs) for welfare recipients in different countries. As empirical evidence reveals that welfare recipients in Germany often participate in multiple programmes, I evaluate the sequential participation of unemployment benefit II (UB-II)-recipients in ALMPs in Germany. My study uses comprehensive, administrative data to control for dynamic selection that arises in the evaluation of sequences. Using a dynamic matching approach and an inflow sample of UB-II-recipients, I analyse the effects of sequences of One-Euro-Jobs and/or UB II-receipt on labour market outcomes.
IAB-Discussion Paper 16/2013
Wage posting or wage bargaining?
20 September 2013
Using a representative establishment dataset, this paper is the first to analyze the incidence of wage posting and wage bargaining in the matching process from the employer’s side. We show that both modes of wage determination coexist in the German labor market, with about two-thirds of hirings being characterized by wage posting. Wage posting dominates in the public sector, in larger firms, in firms covered by collective agreements, and in part-time and fixed-term contracts. Jobseekers who are unemployed, out of the labor force or just finished their apprenticeship are also less likely to get a chance of negotiating. Wage bargaining
is more likely for more-educated applicants and in jobs with special requirements as well as in tight regional labor markets.
IAB-Discussion Paper 15/2013
Labour market forecasting: Is disaggregation useful?
18 September 2013
Using the example of short-term forecasts for German employment figures, the article at hand examines the question whether the use of disaggregated information increases the forecast accuracy of the aggregate. For this purpose, the out-ofsample forecasts for the aggregated employment forecast are compared to and contrasted with forecasts based on a vector-autoregressive model, which includes not only the aggregate but also the numbers of gainfully employed people at the industry level. The Clark/West test is used in the model comparison. It becomes evident that disaggregation significantly improves the employment forecast. Moreover, fluctuation-window tests help identify the phases during which disaggregation increases forecast accuracy to the strongest extent.
IAB-Discussion Paper 14/2013
Migration, unemployment, and skill downgrading
13 September 2013
This paper analyzes the impact of the skill composition of migration flows on the host country’s labor market in a specific factors two-sector model with heterogeneous labor (low-, medium-, and highly-skilled) and price- and wage-setting behavior. The low- and medium-skilled labor markets are characterized by frictions due to wage bargaining. Moreover, we assume skill downgrading of unemployed medium-skilled workers into low-skilled labor supply. Endogenous benefits create an interdependency between the two bargaining processes.
IAB-Discussion Paper 13/2013
Unemployment benefit II, unemployment and health
13 September 2013
A multitude of studies has established a negative relationship between unemployment and health. With the "Hartz-reforms", unemployment benefit II was introduced in 2005. Whether unemployment benefit II receipt has an impact, additional to unemployment, on health, is investigated. For this study data of the panel study "Labour market and social security" is used. The sample consists out of 14.282 respondents aged 18 to 65, who participated up to five years from 2006 to 2011. Measures of subjective health by social status were analyzed using Fixed Effect panel models.
IAB-Discussion Paper 12/2013