Forecasts and Structural Analyses
Department
Research Department A2
Research task
The Research Department analyses and produces forecasts of the macroeconomic development of the labour market in Germany, for instance: available labour, demand for labour, and underemployment. Our studies concentrate above all on the way these figures relate to the economic situation in general, to democratic change and to structural shifts in the German economy.
We research both the short-term and the long-term development of the labour market and in this way draw up detailed annual forecasts for unemployment and gainful employment.
Furthermore, with the IAB Macroeconomic Job Vacancy Survey (EGS), the research department has at its disposal a unique dataset of representative information about the number and structure of open jobs and the processes of filling these. For example, it is possible to analyze current and expected requirements for skilled labour according to sectors, regions and qualifications. In addition to this, part of the survey is dedicated to in-house assessments of current labour market policy topics such as the Hartz IV reforms or the use of 1-euro jobs.
The long-term development of skilled labour requirements is depicted via models of the labour market and the economy as a whole. Here especial attention is paid to the way the labour and goods markets adapt to structural developments such as demography. The development of the population, participation in gainful employment, the potential of economically active persons, and the hidden labour force are quantified and forecast for the labour-supply side.
Along with this we analyze the interaction of the labour market with the macroeconomy, in particular economic cycles, economic developments, and institutional reforms.
With its analytical and prognostic studies, the research department is often consulted by the Federal Employment Agency (BA), Ministries, Parliament and associations as a competent source of advice. For the media and academic circles we are also a much sought-after point of contact.
Projects
Projects of department
Staff members
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