Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung

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Zertifikat "audit berufundfamilie"

Inhaltsbereich: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung

Long-term labour force projections for Germany


"Labor force projections are an important tool for labour market policy. They can be helpful for labour market monitoring and for the setting up and evaluation of employment programmes. The concept of potential labour force can complement a labour market information system as its includes the gainfully employed, the registered unemployed and the hidden labour force ('hidden unemployment') as well. The potential labour force refers to the employment participation realised in times of high economic activity (and nearly full employment). Projections of labour market participation (activity rates) and population are the elements of a labour force forecast. Having identified stable long-run relationships for 'actual' activity rates, which includes a labour market indicator as an explantory variable, the task of producing potential activity rates is achieved by means of simulating a high employment situation. In the regression equations the actual values for the labour market indicator are replaced by ist 'boon value'. Nearly all activity rates will increase within the next years. The development of future population and the predicted potential activity rates probably lead to a rising potential labour force in western Germany up to the year 2010. Most important for the change of the potential labour force are migration movements and the potential activity rates of married German females." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))


Bibliographical information

Fuchs, Johann (1994): Long-term labour force projections for Germany * the concept of potential labour force. (Eurostat working paper, 55), New York u.a., 18 p. & appendix.