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Inhaltsbereich: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung

How the Modelling of the Emigration Flows Affects the Predicted Migration Outcome

Project Number


Head of Project

Project Staff

Project Start

January 2019

End of Project

December 2021


In the public discussion there seems to be a common consensus that, looking at net migration figures, at least a partial offset of the demographic trend might be possible by a certain level of immigration. However, the number of emigrants could be expected to rise with the growth of the (domestic) population of migrants. A higher level of immigration increases the migrant population and, therefore, more people are under risk to leave the country. Accordingly, either the emigration rate drops or the yearly immigration inflow has to increase in order to achieve the necessary net inflow. Our study focuses on this link from a quantitative perspective. The analysis uses up-to-date population figures for Germany. We apply a deterministic cohort-component approach, linking it to some results from stochastically modelled emigration rates. The migration part separates immigration and emigration, both distinguishing between German and non-German nationals. First estimations suggest that an almost stable emigration rate in connection with visible immigration numbers restricts the net migration surplus. We conclude that Germany (and presumably many other OECD countries as well) will do better in reducing emigration by promoting those migrants who already live in the country.