Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung

TippingSens: An R Shiny Application to Facilitate Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Inference Under Confounding

Most strategies for causal inference based on quasi-experimental or observational data critically rely on the assumption of unconfoundedness. If this assumption is suspect, sensitivity analysis can be a viable tool to evaluate the impact of confounding on the analysis of interest. One of the earliest proposals for such a sensitivity analysis was suggested by Rosenbaum/ Rubin (1983). However, while it is straightforward to obtain estimates for the causal effect under specific assumptions regarding an unobserved confounder, conducting a full sensitivity analysis based on a range of parameter settings is unwieldy based on the simple forking tables which Rosenbaum and Rubin used. To tackle the multiple parameter problem of the Rosenbaum-Rubin approach, we present an interactive R Shiny application called TippingSens, which visualizes the impact of various parameter settings on the estimated causal effect. Borrowing from the literature on tipping point analysis, the flexible app facilitates manipulating all parameters simultaneously. We demonstrate the usefulness of our app by conducting a sensitivity analysis for a quasi-experiment measuring the effect of vocational training programs on unemployed men. The online supplement accompanying this paper provides a step-by-step introduction to the app using the original illustrative example from Rosenbaum/Rubin (1983).

IAB-Discussion Paper 29/2020

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Training, wages and a missing school graduation cohort

This study analyzes the effects of a missing high school graduation cohort on firms’ training provision and trainees’ wages. An exogenous school reform varying at the state and year level caused the missing cohort to occur. Using administrative social security data on all trainees and training firms, we show that firms provide less training by reducing their overall number of hired apprentices. We also show that the pool of firms that offer training in the year of the missing cohort shifts towards a higher share of low wage firms. After keeping firm characteristics constant, the findings indicate that the missing cohort increases training wages measured at the start of training. Further analyses shed light on the opposite case of dual cohorts, which we find to increase training provision and to decrease training wages. The evidence also shows that high and low wage firms differ in how they adjust training provision in response to a dual cohort.

IAB-Discussion Paper 28/2020

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Employment Subsidies for Long-Term Welfare Benefits Recipients: Reconciling Programmes’ Goals with Needs of Diverging Population Groups

We discuss the design and examine the inflow of participants in two new subsidised employment programmes (§ 16 e/i German Social Code II) that aim to help long-term welfare recipients in Germany to find a job and increase their social participation. We describe the programmes in terms of goals and eligibility criteria and proceed to analyse recent inflows into the programmes using Latent Class (Cluster) Analysis in an exploratory manner. Our findings provide evidences on the considerable heterogeneity in the programmes’ inflows. The resulting typology does not only connect individual biographical and socioeconomic characteristics with greater sociohistorical processes, but give strong hints towards different needs of the various participant groups which could be treated differently in the programmes. Keeping up and improving social integration through subsidized labour is a high priority treatment to be considered for some participant groups, while others should be considered more for improvements of education and professional training, even if their biographies so far show most distance to both. Our results provide first guidance on how to adjust programme’s design to the needs and capabilities of heterogeneous groups of long-term unemployed and welfare benefit recipients.

IAB-Discussion Paper 27/2020

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Daughters of migrants often participate in further training

Digitisation, demography and ever increasing international interdependence require life-long learning of employees. Yet, participation in vocational further training has so far been unequally distributed among different groups. This is also obvious for the employees with a migration background: Men who immigrated themselves seldom take part in further training, whereas women whose parents had come as immigrants often do so.

The article can be found in our Magazine IAB-Forum

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The IAB announces the conference “Labour Market Transitions: Challenges for Public Policies and Research”

In the light of Germany’s EU Council Presidency in 2020, the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) is happy to announce an interdisciplinary labour market conference. This conference will focus on various topics concerning labour market transitions and the evaluation of policies that governments implement to smooth such transitions. Along with profound scientific insights, this conference additionally aims at fostering the valuable exchange between scholars and policymakers. Thus, it also considers the relevant perspective of high-level actors engaged in the European labour market policy.

The conference will take place as a hybrid conference. For more information, visit our event website. For further information on the conference programme and to register as an online guest, please visit our XING Events website.

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On the foreign to native wage differential in Germany: Does the home country matter?

The German labour force is expected to shrink in the next two decades due to a decline in population. Therefore, the immigration of workers from abroad could compensate potential negative effects of such decline. Is Germany competitive for immigration – i. e., do German employers pay enough to make it attractive as a destination country? We explore the wage gap between foreigners and German employees in particular and focus on different countries of origin to better understand issues related to wage setting among these groups. For this purpose, a threefold Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is performed using a comprehensive data with a vast amount of information on a large number of workers and firms. The results suggest that most of the wage gap can be explained by observed characteristics, and in most cases, very little difference remains unexplained. We provide evidence on differences specific to the country of origin which could be taken in into consideration to attract people from abroad to better integrate them into the German labour market.

IAB-Discussion Paper 26/2020

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Cash-for-care, or caring for cash? The eects of a home care subsidy on maternal employment, childcare choices, and children’s development

How parents respond to changes in the price of childcare is an important, though not fully understood, public policy question. Our paper provides new comprehensive evidence on how a home care subsidy jointly affects maternal labour market outcomes, childcare choices, and children’s development. We examine a German reform from 2013 which introduced a home care subsidy of initially 100 Euros per month for families who do not use subsidised childcare. Exploiting a date-of-birth cut-off in eligibility and using administrative data on employment and child development alongside survey data on childcare usage, we show that the reform reduced mothers’ likelihood to return to work within three years by only 1.4 percentage points, but decreased childcare enrolment for one- and two-year olds by 5 percentage points. We find no effect on children’s skill development at age six. Our findings imply that the subsidy accrued almost completely as windfall gains to families whowould not have used formal childcare anyway.

IAB-Discussion Paper 25/2020

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The effects of foreign direct investment on job stability: Upgrades, downgrades, and separations

We use linked employer-employee data to estimate the effect of foreign direct Investment (FDI) on workers’ job stability. Weare the first to consider firm-internal job transitions. Specifically, we examine the impact of FDI on the individual likelihood to up- or downgrade to occupations with more or less analytical and interactive tasks. To do so, we propose an iterative matching procedure that generates a homogeneous sample of firms with equal probabilities of investing. Based on this sample, we use proportional hazard models to retrieve dynamic effects on workers.

IAB-Discussion Paper 24/2020

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Redistribution Preferences, Attitudes towards Immigrants, and Ethnic Diversity

Ethnic diversity plays a crucial role in shaping national economic and social policy. A Change in the ethnic composition of a country affects citizens’ everyday life and social environment and may challenge present societal values, such as solidarity with and trust in fellow citizens. Based on the European Social Survey, I show that more contact with members of other ethnic groups in daily life is positively related to more open attitudes of natives towards immigrants. More interethnic contact of natives reduces their social distance to immigrants, their perception of immigrants as a threat to society, and their opposition to future immigration. In turn, an open-minded and tolerant attitude promotes mutual trust and solidarity within society.

IAB-Discussion Paper 23/2020

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How digitalized is work in large German workplaces, and how is digitalized work perceived by Workers?

Digitalization of work has been made responsible for an increase in labor market inequalities, not only with respect to job loss, but also concerning an increased polarization of the remaining jobs due to processes of devaluation and upgrading of jobs and occupations. However, the discussion about possible consequences is quite polarized and not very sophisticated regarding different technologies and different implementations of the same technology. To understand changes due to digitalization processes, we suggest measuring the implementation of digitalized work both at the individual employee and at the workplace level, because decisions about how digital assistance systems are implemented are made by the latter. Existing representative surveys in Germany so far miss to provide such a comprehensive overview of digitalized work in different occupations and workplaces, as well as their implications for workers. The aim of this paper is to present a newly developed multi-dimensional measurement of digitalized work implemented in a representative linked employer-employee study design. The instrument aims at measuring the prevalence of various dimensions of digitalized work (the use of digital communication, digital information, digital regulation and control, working with robots) and how those are perceived by workers.

IAB-Forschungsbericht 8/2020

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