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BMAS-Prognose "Digitalisierte Arbeitswelt"



"The Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs is developing a new analytical instrument for forecasting the supply and demand of skilled labour in Germany (Fachkräftemonitoring). By continuously optimizing the model parameters insights into trends for the development of supply and demand will be achieved. The 'Fachkräftemonitoring' project is based on the BIBB-IAB qualification and occupational field projections (QuBe project;, which have been operated and continuously developed since 2007 as part of a cooperation project between the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency (IAB) in cooperation with the Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbH (GWS). The forecast 'Digitale Arbeitswelt' is based on the 'Fachkräftemonitoring' project. The key findings are presented in this research report. The forecast of the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs shows that the economic and occupational structural change will lead to the fact that in 2035 the working environment will differ from today's by more than 7 million jobs. There will be occupational shortages of skilled labour, although there is no evidence of nationwide shortage of labour. Shortages can be identified for occupational groups like 'medical health professionals', 'agriculture', 'plumbing, sanitation, heating, air conditioning', 'police, criminal service, court and prison services' and 'education, social work, curative care education'. On the other hand, there is a high level of competition for jobseekers in jobs with broad access for persons with non-occupational or non-vocational qualifications. This is the case, for example, in 'warehouse management', 'cleaning' and 'gastronomy'." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))


Bibliographical information

Zika, Gerd; Schneemann, Christian; Grossman, Anett; Kalinowski, Michael; Maier, Tobias; Mönnig, Anke; Parton, Frederik; Winnige, Stefan; Wolter, Marc Ingo (2019): BMAS-Prognose "Digitalisierte Arbeitswelt". (IAB-Forschungsbericht, 05/2019), Nürnberg, 76 p.