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Niedriglohnarbeitsmarkt

Immer mehr Beschäftigte arbeiten in Deutschland zu Niedriglöhnen. Vor allem junge Menschen sind davon betroffen. Bietet der Niedriglohnsektor eine Chance zum Einstieg in den Arbeitsmarkt oder ist er eine Sackgasse? Die IAB-Infoplattform erschließt Informationen zum Forschungsstand.

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Low-skill jobs or jobs for low-skilled workers?: An analysis of the institutional determinants of the employment rates of low-educated workers in 19 OECD countries, 1997 - 2010 (2015)

    Abrassart, Aurélien;

    Zitatform

    Abrassart, Aurélien (2015): Low-skill jobs or jobs for low-skilled workers? An analysis of the institutional determinants of the employment rates of low-educated workers in 19 OECD countries, 1997 - 2010. In: Journal of European social policy, Jg. 25, H. 2, S. 225-241. DOI:10.1177/0958928715573485

    Abstract

    "We often hear that the high unemployment rates of low-educated workers in Europe are due to the rigidities of the institutions increasing the labour costs that burden employers. In this article, we challenge this traditional view and offer alternative explanations to the cross-national variation in the employment rate of low-educated workers. Using macro-data and an error correction model, we analyse the determinants of the creation of jobs for low-educated workers in 19 countries between 1997 and 2010. Our findings tend to invalidate the neoliberal view, while also pointing to the positive impact of investing in public employment services and the predominant role of economic growth, which can be weakened by union density and employment protection in the case of male workers. Last but not least, creating low skill jobs has no or little impact on the employment outcomes of low-educated workers, thus indicating job displacement issues." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Is precarious employment low income employment?: the changing labour market in Southern Ontario (2014)

    Lewchuk, Wayne; Viducis, Peter; Rosen, Dan; Laflèche, Michelynn; Shields, John; Meisner, Alan; Vrankulj, Sam; Dyson, Diane; Goldring, Luin; Procyk, Stephanie;

    Zitatform

    Lewchuk, Wayne, Michelynn Laflèche, Diane Dyson, Luin Goldring, Alan Meisner, Stephanie Procyk, Dan Rosen, John Shields, Peter Viducis & Sam Vrankulj (2014): Is precarious employment low income employment? The changing labour market in Southern Ontario. In: Just Labour: A Canadian Journal of Work and Society, Jg. 22, H. Autumn, S. 51-73.

    Abstract

    "This paper examines the association between income and precarious employment, how this association is changing and how it is shaped by gender and race. It explores how precarious employment has spread to even middle income occupations and what this implies for our understanding of contemporary labour markets and employment relationship norms. The findings indicate a need to refine our views of who is in precarious employment and a need to re-evaluate the nature of the Standard Employment Relationship, which we would argue is not only becoming less prevalent, but also transitioning into something that is less secure." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Cognitive skills matter: the employment disadvantage of low-educated workers in comparative perspective (2013)

    Abrassart, Aurélien;

    Zitatform

    Abrassart, Aurélien (2013): Cognitive skills matter: the employment disadvantage of low-educated workers in comparative perspective. In: European Sociological Review, Jg. 29, H. 4, S. 707-719. DOI:10.1093/esr/jcs049

    Abstract

    "It is now a widely acknowledged fact that the low-educated workers are facing important risks of labour market exclusion in modern economies. However, possessing low levels of educational qualifications leads to very different situations from one country to another, as the cross-national variation in the unemployment rates of these workers attest. While conventional wisdom usually blames welfare states and the resulting rigidity of labour markets for the low employment opportunities of low-educated workers, empirical evidence tends to contradict this predominant view. Using microdata from the International Adult Literacy Survey that was conducted between 1994 and 1998, we examine the sources of the cross-national variation in the employment disadvantage of low-educated workers in 14 industrialized nations. In particular, we test the validity of the conventional theories concerning the supposedly harmful effect of labour market regulation against a new and promising hypothesis on the importance of cognitive skills for the employment opportunities of the low-educated workers. Our findings support the latter and suggest that the greater the cognitive gap between the low-educated workers and those with intermediate education, the lower the chances of being employed for the former relatively to their higher educated counterparts." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    The (non) impact of minimum wages on poverty: regression and simulation evidence for Canada (2012)

    Campolieti, Michele; Lee, Byron; Gunderson, Morley;

    Zitatform

    Campolieti, Michele, Morley Gunderson & Byron Lee (2012): The (non) impact of minimum wages on poverty. Regression and simulation evidence for Canada. In: Journal of labor research, Jg. 33, H. 3, S. 287-302. DOI:10.1007/s12122-012-9139-8

    Abstract

    "We estimate the effect of minimum wages on poverty for Canada using data from the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for 1997 to 2007 and find that minimum wages do not have a statistically significant effect on poverty and this finding is robust across a number of specifications. Our simulation results, based on the March 2008 Labour Force Survey (LFS), find that only about 30 % of the net earnings gain from minimum wage increases goes to the poor while about 70 % 'spill over' into the hands of the non-poor. Furthermore, we find that job losses are disproportionately concentrated on the poor. Our results highlight that, political rhetoric not-withstanding, minimum wages are poorly targeted as an anti-poverty device and are at best an exceedingly blunt instrument for dealing with poverty." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    WSI-Mindestlohnbericht 2012: schwache Mindestlohnentwicklung unter staatlicher Austeritätspolitik (2012)

    Schulten, Thorsten;

    Zitatform

    Schulten, Thorsten (2012): WSI-Mindestlohnbericht 2012. Schwache Mindestlohnentwicklung unter staatlicher Austeritätspolitik. In: WSI-Mitteilungen, Jg. 65, H. 2, S. 124-130. DOI:10.5771/0342-300X-2012-2-124

    Abstract

    "Der WSI-Mindestlohnbericht 2012 gibt einen aktuellen Überblick über die gegenwärtige Mindestlohnpolitik in Europa und ausgewählten außereuropäischen Staaten. Unter Auswertung der WSI-Mindestlohndatenbank werden neueste Daten zur Höhe und Entwicklung gesetzlicher Mindestlöhne präsentiert. Im Jahr 2011 wurden die Mindestlöhne in der Regel nur geringfügig angehoben oder sogar gänzlich eingefroren. In den meisten europäischen Ländern erlitten die Mindestlohnbezieher zum Teil deutliche Reallohnverluste. Im Rahmen des aktuellen Krisenmanagements in der Europäischen Union wurde die Mindestlohnpolitik zum Bestandteil einer allgemeinen Austeritätspolitik." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Cognitive skills matter: The employment disadvantage of the low-educated in international comparison (2011)

    Abrassart, Aurelien;

    Zitatform

    Abrassart, Aurelien (2011): Cognitive skills matter: The employment disadvantage of the low-educated in international comparison. (Working Papers on the Reconciliation of Work and Welfare in Europe. REC-WP 04/2011), Edinburgh, 26 S.

    Abstract

    "It is now a widely acknowledged fact that the low-skilled are facing important risks of labour market exclusion in modern economies. However, possessing low levels of educational qualifications leads to very different situations from one country to another, as the cross-national variation in the unemployment rates of the low-skilled attest. While conventional wisdom usually blames welfare states and the resulting rigidity of labour markets for the low employment opportunities of low-skilled workers, empirical evidence tends to contradict this predominant view.
    Using microdata from the International Adult Literacy Survey that was conducted between 1994 and 1998, we examine the sources of the cross-national variation in the employment disadvantage of low-skilled workers in 14 industrialized nations. In particular, we test the validity of the conventional theories concerning the supposedly harmful effect of labour market regulation against a new and promising hypothesis on the importance of cognitive skills for the employment opportunities of the low-educated. Our findings support the latter and suggest that the employment disadvantage the low-educated experience relatively to medium-educated workers is mainly due to their deficit in the skills that have become so important for labour market success in the recent past, namely cognitive skills." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Assessing the impact of a wage subsidy for single parents on social assistance (2011)

    Lacroix, Guy ; Brouillette, Dany;

    Zitatform

    Lacroix, Guy & Dany Brouillette (2011): Assessing the impact of a wage subsidy for single parents on social assistance. In: Canadian Journal of Economics, Jg. 44, H. 4, S. 1195-1221. DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5982.2011.01672.x

    Abstract

    "This paper studies the impact of a wage subsidy program aimed at long-term social assistance recipients in Quebec. The program closely mimics the Self-Sufficiency Project and was implemented for a trial period of one year in 2002. We focus on the labour market transitions of the targeted population starting one year before the implementation of the program and until the end of 2005. Our results show that the duration of spells off social assistance increased, while the duration of social assistance spells decreased slightly. The response to the program varies considerably with both observed and unobserved characteristics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Gender gaps across countries and skills: supply, demand and the industry structure (2011)

    Olivetti, Claudia; Petrongolo, Barbara;

    Zitatform

    Olivetti, Claudia & Barbara Petrongolo (2011): Gender gaps across countries and skills. Supply, demand and the industry structure. (CEP discussion paper 1093), London, 42 S.

    Abstract

    "The gender wage gap varies widely across countries and across skill groups within countries. Interestingly, there is a positive cross-country correlation between the unskilled-to-skilled gender wage gap and the corresponding gap in hours worked. Based on a canonical supply and demand framework, this positive correlation would reveal the presence of net demand forces shaping gender differences in labor market outcomes across skills and countries. We use a simple multi-sector framework to illustrate how differences in labor demand for different inputs can be driven by both within-industry and between-industry factors. The main idea is that, if the service sector is more developed in the US than in continental Europe, and unskilled women tend to be over-represented in this sector, we expect unskilled women to suffer a relatively large wage and/or employment penalty in the latter than in the former. We find that, overall, the between-industry component of labor demand explains more than half of the total variation in labor demand between the US and the majority of countries in our sample, as well as one-third of the correlation between wage and hours gaps. The between-industry component is relatively more important in countries where the relative demand for unskilled females is lowest." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    The employment effects of lower minimum wage rates for young workers: Canadian evidence (2011)

    Shannon, Michael;

    Zitatform

    Shannon, Michael (2011): The employment effects of lower minimum wage rates for young workers. Canadian evidence. In: Industrial relations, Jg. 50, H. 4, S. 629-655. DOI:10.1111/j.1468-232X.2011.00655.x

    Abstract

    "Between 1986 and 1998, six of the ten Canadian provinces abolished their lower minimum wage rates for younger teenage workers. Using data from the Canadian Labour Force Survey, this paper evaluates the effects of abolition on the employment and weekly hours worked of 15- to 16-year-olds using teenagers in provinces where there is no legislative change and young people above the age to which youth rates applied as control groups. The results provide some evidence that abolishing these youth rates significantly lowered employment and work hours of 15- to 16-year-olds, but the lack of evidence for some jurisdictions and patterns of effects using age controls do raise some questions regarding the interpretation of the results." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Fordism at work in Canadian coffee shops (2011)

    Woodhall, Julia R.; Muszynski, Alicja;

    Zitatform

    Woodhall, Julia R. & Alicja Muszynski (2011): Fordism at work in Canadian coffee shops. In: Just Labour: A Canadian Journal of Work and Society, Jg. 17/18, S. 56-69.

    Abstract

    "Although many areas of work today are characterized by post-Fordist principles, there are still significant numbers of workplaces that have adapted and continue to operate using a Fordist model, and in particular, low-paying service industries that rely on a largely female and part-time labour force. This paper explores how the Fordist model has been adapted and extended within the Canadian coffee shop franchise industry. Qualitative interviews were conducted with staff and managers in selected coffee shops to gain a better understanding of how work is organized and managed in this industry." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Understanding the wage patterns of Canadian less skilled workers: the role of implicit contracts (2010)

    Green, David A.; Townsend, James;

    Zitatform

    Green, David A. & James Townsend (2010): Understanding the wage patterns of Canadian less skilled workers: the role of implicit contracts. In: Canadian Journal of Economics, Jg. 43, H. 1, S. 373-403. DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5982.2009.01576.x

    Abstract

    "We examine the wage patterns of Canadian less skilled male workers over the last quarter-century by organizing workers into job entry cohorts. We find entry wages for successive cohorts declined until 1997 and then began to recover. Wage profiles steepened for cohorts entering after 1997, but not for cohorts entering in the 1980s - a period when start wages were relatively high. We argue that these patterns are consistent with a model of implicit contracts with recontracting in which a worker's current wage is determined by the best labour market conditions experienced during the current job spell." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Minimum wage (2010)

    Langevin, Manon;

    Zitatform

    Langevin, Manon (2010): Minimum wage. In: Perspectives on Labour and Income, Jg. 11, H. 3, S. 14-22.

    Abstract

    "All provinces and territories set minimum wages in their employment standards legislation. This update uses the Labour Force Survey to examine the characteristics of those who work at or below the minimum wage for experienced adults in each jurisdiction. The incidence of working for minimum wage has increased each year since 2006 but remains concentrated among youth, particularly young women." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    The dynamic effects of an earnings subsidy for long-term welfare recipients: evidence from the Self Sufficiency Project Applicant Experiment (2009)

    Card, David; Hyslop, Dean R.;

    Zitatform

    Card, David & Dean R. Hyslop (2009): The dynamic effects of an earnings subsidy for long-term welfare recipients. Evidence from the Self Sufficiency Project Applicant Experiment. In: Journal of econometrics, Jg. 153, H. 1, S. 1-20. DOI:10.1016/j.jeconom.2009.03.013

    Abstract

    "In the Self Sufficiency Project Applicant Experiment, new welfare entrants were informed that if they remained on public assistance for a year they would become eligible to receive a generous earnings subsidy offer. Those who satisfied the waiting period, and then left welfare and began working full time within the following year, were entitled to receive payments for up to 36 months whenever they were off welfare and working full time. A simple optimizing model suggests that the program rules created an unusual sequence of incentives: (1) to prolong the initial spell on welfare for at least 12 months to become eligible for the subsidy offer; (2) to lock in subsidy entitlement by finding full time work and leaving welfare in the 12 - 24 month period after initial entry; and (3) to choose work over welfare during the three years that subsidies were available. Consistent with these implications, comparisons between the experimental treatment group and a randomly assigned control group show that the program increased welfare participation in the first year after initial entry and lowered it over the following 5 years. We develop an econometric model of welfare participation and program eligibility status that allows us to separately identify the behavioral effects associated with the program rules. We find important responses to all three incentives, and that the program impact persisted after subsidy payments ended, although the effect decayed over time." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Lone mothers, workfare and precarious employment: time for a Canadian basic income? (2009)

    Evans, Patricia M.;

    Zitatform

    Evans, Patricia M. (2009): Lone mothers, workfare and precarious employment. Time for a Canadian basic income? In: International social security review, Jg. 62, H. 1, S. 45-64. DOI:10.1111/j.1468-246X.2008.01321.x

    Abstract

    "The growth of precarious employment poses significant challenges to current social assistance income support policies yet it remains largely neglected in policy-making arenas. Drawing upon qualitative data from a study in Ontario, Canada, this paper examines the particular implications of these challenges for lone mothers, who figure prominently both in non-standard employment and as targets for workfare policies. In the context of changing labour markets, the article considers the potential strengths and limitations of Basic Income approaches to achieving economic security for lone mothers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    A comparative review of workfare programmes in the United States, Canada and Australia (2008)

    Crisp, Richard; Fletcher, Del Roy;

    Zitatform

    Crisp, Richard & Del Roy Fletcher (2008): A comparative review of workfare programmes in the United States, Canada and Australia. (Department of Work and Pensions. Research report 533), London, 24 S.

    Abstract

    "Hallam University were commissioned to undertake a literature review of international evidence of workfare programmes. Three countries were chosen as offering interesting and relevant examples of workfare type programmes: the US, Canada and Australia. It was clear from the outset that it would not be possible to import wholesale programmes from other countries into the UK, but that there would be key lessons. The report refers to key features that help participants on workfare programmes into employment. Insisting on some job search for participants during the programme is vital to ensure that they do not become dependent on this form of employment and actually move into the open labour market. The second key feature is treating participants' barriers to work and not just their lack of work experience. Additional support for those with drink and drug problems and basic employability skills helps improve participants' chances of finding work. The report points to evidence that full-time activity in such programmes leads to improved job outcomes: between a half and two-thirds of leavers found unsubsidised work at some point in the three years after leaving the Wisconsin programme. Australia's 'Work for the Dole' had a 7 per cent net increase in participants going into jobs compared to nonparticipants." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    (Not) taking account of precarious employment: workfare policies and lone mothers in Ontario and the UK (2007)

    Evans, Patricia M.;

    Zitatform

    Evans, Patricia M. (2007): (Not) taking account of precarious employment. Workfare policies and lone mothers in Ontario and the UK. In: Social policy and administration, Jg. 41, H. 1, S. 29-49. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9515.2007.00537.x

    Abstract

    "Workfare is, at least in part, a policy response to changing labour markets and the expansion taking place in jobs that are low-paid, irregular and insecure. For lone mothers, increasingly the focus of workfare policies, precarious employment creates special challenges. However, the nature of the jobs that are available to women on social assistance has received relatively little attention in the workfare literature, which focuses more on individual characteristics, supports to employment, and programme impacts. Drawing upon both primary and secondary sources and using Ontario, the province with the most developed workfare programme in Canada, this article examines the ways in which policies support and enforce precarious employment. The article also considers the implications of precarious employment for UK policy, which has not (yet) adopted workfare for lone mothers, although incremental steps in that direction are taking place as employment is increasingly viewed as the appropriate objective of income support programmes for lone mothers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Minimum wages and employment: a review of evidence from the new minimum wage research (2007)

    Neumark, David ; Wascher, William;

    Zitatform

    Neumark, David & William Wascher (2007): Minimum wages and employment. A review of evidence from the new minimum wage research. (IZA discussion paper 2570), Bonn, 156 S.

    Abstract

    "We review the burgeoning literature on the employment effects of minimum wages - in the United States and other countries - that was spurred by the 'new minimum wage research' beginning in the early 1990's. The wide range of existing estimates makes it difficult for us to draw broad generalizations about the implications of the new minimum wage research. Clearly, no consensus now exists about the overall effects on low-skilled employment of an increase in the minimum wage. However, the oft-stated assertion that this recent research fails to support the traditional view that the minimum wage reduces the employment of low-skilled workers is clearly incorrect. The overwhelming majority of the studies surveyed in this paper give a relatively consistent (although not always statistically significant) indication of negative employment effects of minimum wages. In addition, among the papers we view as providing the most credible evidence, almost all point to negative employment effects. Moreover, the evidence tends to point to disemployment effects of minimum wages in the United States as well as many other countries. Two potentially more important conclusions emerge from our review. First, we see very few - if any - cases where a study provides convincing evidence of positive employment effects of minimum wages, especially from studies that focus on broader groups (rather than a narrow industry) for which the competitive model predicts disemployment effects. Second, when researchers focus on the least-skilled groups most likely to be adversely affected by minimum wages, we regard the evidence as relatively overwhelming that there are stronger disemployment effects for these groups." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Die Kombilohndiskussion 2006/2007 in Deutschland (2007)

    Spermann, Alexander;

    Zitatform

    Spermann, Alexander (2007): Die Kombilohndiskussion 2006/2007 in Deutschland. Regensburg, 35 S.

    Abstract

    "Kombilohn ist nicht gleich Kombilohn! Hinter diesem schillernden Begriff verbergen sich ganz unterschiedliche Konzepte: Staatliche Zuschüsse an Arbeitnehmer (im Rahmen oder außerhalb des Grundsicherungssystems Arbeitslosengeld II), aber auch staatliche Zuschüsse an Arbeitgeber (zeitlich unbefristet oder befristet). Interessierte Leser sind gezwungen, genau hinzusehen und zu fragen: Welcher Kombilohn ist gemeint? Hierzu liefert dieser Beitrag wichtige Orientierung. Zunächst werden die zentralen Fallen aufgezeigt, die bei der Implementierung eines Kombilohnes zu beachten sind. Hierzu zählen die Arbeitslosenfalle, die Minijob- und Teilzeitjobfalle, die Working Poor Falle, die bad job Falle sowie die Erwerbsunfähigkeitsfalle. Weiterhin werden die wichtigsten sechs Reformvorschläge der deutschen Kombilohn-Diskussion dargestellt und kritisch diskutiert. Es zeigt sich, dass nicht alle Wirkungen der verschiedenen Kombilohnvarianten empirisch abgeschätzt werden können - eine Restunsicherheit verbleibt für die Politik. Am wirkungsvollsten dürfte eine Kombination an positiv evaluierten Workfare- und Kombilohnelementen sein, wenn das bestehende Grundsicherungsniveau nicht abgesenkt werden soll. Anders formuliert: Die staatliche Grundsicherung wird eng mit der Arbeitspflicht verknüpft, Einkommenszuschüsse für Grundsicherungsbezieher werden zeitlich befristet an Arbeitnehmer und/oder Arbeitgeber gezahlt." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Kombilöhne im internationalen Vergleich: Nicht jede Therapie schlägt überall an (2006)

    Brücker, Herbert ; Konle-Seidl, Regina;

    Zitatform

    Brücker, Herbert & Regina Konle-Seidl (2006): Kombilöhne im internationalen Vergleich: Nicht jede Therapie schlägt überall an. (IAB-Kurzbericht 10/2006), Nürnberg, 8 S.

    Abstract

    "Ein Blick über die Grenzen kann helfen, weit reichende politische Entscheidungen - wie im Falle des Kombilohns - mit internationalen Erfahrungen zu stützen. Die Erfahrungen in den USA und Großbritannien zeigen, dass großzügige Einkommenssubventionen unter den Bedingungen eines Sozialstaates, der niedrige Leistungen für Nichterwerbstätige mit Auflagen zur Arbeitssuche verbindet, nennenswerte Beschäftigungseffekte haben. Allerdings existiert in den USA keine bedarfsdeckende Mindestsicherung. Zudem wurde dort der Leistungsbezug für Nichterwerbstätige zeitlich befristet. Dies kann auf Deutschland, das eine soziokulturelle Mindestsicherung gesetzlich garantiert, nicht übertragen werden. Aus den angelsächsischen Erfahrungen kann jedoch gelernt werden, dass Kombilöhne nur wirken, wenn das Steuer- und Transfer-System die Arbeitsanreize systematisch stärkt. Kombilöhne müssten deshalb in Deutschland in ein konsistentes Steuer- und Transfersystem eingebunden werden. Gerade in Ländern, die ein hohes Grundsicherungsniveau garantieren, ist eine konsequente Aktivierungspolitik notwendig, die monetäre Erwerbsanreize mit Auflagen für Leistungsempfänger verbindet. In Deutschland können zudem verstärkte Erwerbsanreize nur wirken, wenn dem zusätzlichen Arbeitsangebot auch eine entsprechende Nachfrage im Niedriglohnbereich gegenüber steht." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Brücker, Herbert ; Konle-Seidl, Regina;

    Weiterführende Informationen

    Transfersysteme im Vergleich
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Estimating the effects of a time-limited earnings subsidy for welfare-leavers (2005)

    Card, David; Hyslop, Dean R.;

    Zitatform

    Card, David & Dean R. Hyslop (2005): Estimating the effects of a time-limited earnings subsidy for welfare-leavers. In: Econometrica, Jg. 73, H. 6, S. 1723-1770.

    Abstract

    "In the Self Sufficiency Project (SSP) welfare demonstration, members of a randomly assigned treatment group could receive a subsidy for full-time work. The subsidy was available for 3 years, but only to people who began working full time within 12 months of random assignment. A simple optimizing model suggests that the eligibility rules created an 'establishment' incentive to find a job and leave welfare within a year of random assignment, and an 'entitlement' incentive to choose work over welfare once eligibility was established. Building on this insight, we develop an econometric model of welfare participation that allows us to separate the two effects and estimate the impact of the earnings subsidy on welfare entry and exit rates among those who achieved eligibility. The combination of the two incentives explains the time profile of the experimental impacts, which peaked 15 months after random assignment and faded relatively quickly. Our findings suggest that about half of the peak impact of SSP was attributable to the establishment incentive. Despite the extra work effort generated by SSP, the program had no lasting impact on wages and little or no long-run effect on welfare participation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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